Sociale determinationsfaktorer

War and insurgency

A social theory of war 
Sharma, V. S. (2015). A social theory of war: Clausewitz and war reconsidered. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 28(3), 327–347.

The Changing Character of War  
Hew Strachan 2006: The Changing Character of War 
... One of the fears which drove the peacemakers in 1815 was precisely the intimate link between war and revolution ... ... .pdf

The Oxford Handbook of War
Edited by Julian Lindley-French and Yves Boyer ...

Ian Roxborough: Future of War 
Thinking about the future of war must now focus less on the possibility of great power conflict (though that cannot be discounted) and more on wars, armed conflicts, and military operations in the global South. ... 

Gompert, David C. and John Gordon IV (2008) War by Other Means: Building Complete and Balanced Capabilities for Counterinsurgency. Santa Monica: RAND.

Handbook of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency 
Rethinking Insurgency. Steven Metz
The Routledge Handbook of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency ... 

USA og geopolitik
Hart, G., Rudman, W, (Chairs). 1999. New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century,
Study Addendum. Washington: The United States Commission on National Security/21st Centur.

The Fourth Power - A Grand Strategy for the United States in the Twenty-First Century. Gary Hart 2006.
... USA lacks a grand strategy to replace "containment of communism." ...  Central to this strategy is the power of American ideals, what Hart calls "the fourth power." ... 

Kina og geopolitik

Geopoliticalfutures ...

FBIC Index

New Report Investigates Power and Influence in a Globalized World
. Power and Influence in a Globalized World introduces the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index, a new way to measure the formal economic, political, and security influence capacity of states worldwide from 1963 to 2016.
 only ten countries possess about half of the world’s influence. This trend, however, is changing. ... 

Germain, Randall D. 2016: Susan Strange and the future of global political economy: power, control and transformation. Routledge.

Varoufakis, Yanis and Paul Mason 2015: The Global Minotaur: America, Europe and the Future of the Global Economy (Economic Controversies). Zed Books; 3 edition (5 July 2015).

Galbraith, James K. 2014: The End of Normal: The Great Crisis and the Future of Growth. Simon & Schuster. 

The Political Economy of the Future 

Kolodko, G. 2014: Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future: Volume 1. Palgrave Macmillan; 1st ed. 2014 edition. ... ... ... 

Kolodko, Grzegorz W. 2014: Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future: Volume 2. Palgrave Macmillan; 1st ed. 2014 edition. ..

Kolodko, Grzegorz W. ????: Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future: Volume 3.

Rodrik, Dani 2011: The Globalization Paradox: 
Why Global Markets, States, and Democracy Can't Coexist. ... 

Harvey, David 2003: The new imperialism. Oxford university Press.

Hard and Negri: Empire.

Goldstein, J.S., 1988. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age.
Yale University Press, New Haven and London

Bringing the State Back In, edited by Peter B. Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol. Cambridge University Press 1985. 

... Yet a long history of scholarship from diverse disciplines offers a different perspective on one of the legacies of war. Historians and anthropologists have noted how, in some instances, war fostered societal transitions from chiefdoms to states and further strengthened existing states (Carneiro 1970; Flannery and Marcus 2003; Tilly 1985; Choi and Bowles 2007; ...

Carneiro, Robert L. 1970. “A Theory of the
Origin of the State.” Science 169(3947): 733–38. 

Flannery, Kent V., and Joyce Marcus. 2003.
“The Origin of War: New 14C Dates from Ancient
Mexico.” PNAS 100(20): 11801–5.

Tilly, Charles. 1985. “War Making and State
Making as Organized Crime.” Chap 5 in Bringing
the State Back In, edited by Peter B. Evans, Dietrich
Rueschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol. Cambridge
University Press. 

Choi, Jung-Kyoo, and Samuel Bowles. 2007.
“The Coevolution of Parochial Altruism and War.”
Science 318(5850): 636–40. 


Cultural Imperialism: Essays on the Political Economy of Cultural Domination
Bernd Hamm, Russell Charles Smandych
Broadview Press, 2005 - 322 sider

...  connection between cultural imperialism and the global power structure and the political and economic objectives behind current American attempts at global domination ... ...

Andrews, Dan, Chiara Criscuolo, and Peter Gal. 2016.” The Best versus the Rest: The Global
Productivity Slowdown, Divergence across Firms and the Role of Public
Policy.” OECD Productivity Working Papers, No. 5, OECD Publishing, Paris
Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics October 2017 
Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Chad Syverson


International Technorivalry

The Nanotechnology Revolution
Unbounding the Future: the Nanotechnology Revolution. Eric Drexler and Chris Peterson, with Gayle Pergamit William Morrow and Company, Inc. New York 1991. ... pdf

Digital revolution and international relations 
International relations, the political economy, and governance will desperately need new design patterns as we enter a new phase of the digital revolution. 
Azeem Azhar 2017. ... 

Before Civilization

Keeley, Lawrence H. 1997: War Before Civilization: The Myth of the Peaceful Savage.  
Oxford University Press; Reprint edition (December 18, 1997).
… argumenterer imod … The myth of the peace-loving "noble savage" ...
...  prehistoric societies were violent and frequently engaged in warfare. ... ... 

Kelly, Raymond C. 2000: Warless Societies and the Origin of War. University of Michigan Press.

Gat, Azar 2008: War in Human Civilization.
Oxford University Press; 1 edition.
... Why do people go to war? Is it rooted in human nature or is it a late cultural invention? How does war relate to the other fundamental developments in the history of human civilization?

Pinker, Steven 2018: Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress.  Viking.



Den geopolitiske faktor 
Geopolitik handler om relationerne mellem samfund og relationernes betydning for samfundet.

Geopolitik og teknologisk udvikling

Case: Den kolde krig
Rivaliseringen mellem USA og Sovjetunionen
1957: Russisk sputnik medfører i USA store investeringer i ny teknologi.

USA catch up - “missile gap”
President Dwight Eisenhower had tried to downplay the importance of the Sputnik launch to the American people, he poured additional funds and resources into the space program in an effort to catch up.

A Look Back at the Original “Sputnik Moment”
... the U.S. Congress established the National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA — on July 29, 1958.
... Directly following Sputnik’s launch, a Gallup poll discovered that U.S. prestige had eroded in six of the seven foreign cities included in the survey.
... Diplomatically, Sputnik contributed to the reunification of the United States and Great Britain as allies. They had grown apart over the Suez crisis in July 1956.
Paul Dickson: Sputnik: The Shock of the Century (Walker Publishing, 2001).



Neil J. Smelser

External and internal 
Initially, I would like to clarify the use of the terms "external" and "internal"—or "endogenous" and "exogenous." Some theorists use "external" to refer to nonsocial determinants of social change, determinants such as climate, availability of resources, and biological forces. My usage differs from this. I use the term "external" to refer to influences emanating from the presence of other societies in a given society's environment, and I concentrate on international, intersocietal, and intercultural forces. By "internal" I refer to the mutual interrelations of values, social structure, and classes as they are institutionalized in a given society. In making this external-internal distinction, however, I would like to be clear that it cannot be regarded as a fixed, dichotomous one; some of the most interesting questions to be raised about the two kinds of forces are how they interact with each other and how the distinction sometimes breaks down as the two kinds of forces fuse to generate or block social change. ...

Geopolitik og historieteori

Bayly vs Hobsbawm 

Bayly, Christopher 2004: The Birth of the Modern World 1780–1914. Global Connections and Comparisons. Oxford, Blackwell.

Equally, though, Bayly puts the role of military force, and the transformative impact of war, as high on the agenda as it should be (whereas Hobsbawm, say, greatly understated it). ... 

The Birth of the Modern World is a wonderfully ambitious book that effectively demonstrates the global nature of the modern world and the need to decentre national histories and think big ... 
Bayly refuses both Marxist theories of causation and the impact of the cultural turn with its evacuation of grand narratives and its turn to micro-histories. ...

Globalization in World History, ed. A. G. Hopkins (London, 2002).

Michel-Rolph Trouillot, Silencing the Past. Power and the Production of History (Boston, 1995).

Dipesh Chakrabarty, Provincializing Europe. Postcolonial Thought and Historical Difference (Princeton, 2000).



While America Slept 
... a response to While England Slept, a collection of Winston Churchill’s speeches in the years leading up to World War II, in which Churchill had warned repeatedly against Neville Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement, which allowed Germany to re-arm and ultimately to initiate hostilities against Europe. ... 

Computational Propaganda Project
at the Oxford Internet Institute.

U.S. elections in the 21st century 
Abramowitz, Alan I. and Steven Webster. (2016). “The rise of negative partisanship and the
nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st century.” Electoral Studies 41: 12-22.

Political Polarization 
Social Media, Political Polarization, and Political Disinformation: A Review of the Scientific Literature ... 

American Gridlock 
Arceneaux, K., & Johnson, M. (2015). “More a Symptom than a Cause.” In American Gridlock:
The Sources, Character, and Impact of Political Polarization, edited by J. Thurber and A.
Yoshinaka. Cambridge University Press, 309-36.


Make Germany great again 
Kremlin, Alt-Right and International Influences in the 2017 German Elections. ... 

UN and Space

Space. With more states and commercial firms stepping up their capabilities in space,
traditional international approaches to govern these activities will be challenged. ... 

Kupchan, Charles A. (2012). “No One’s World. The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn” ,
Oxford University Press, New York.

Isaksson, D. (2014). Global disorders—a new global order? Development dialogue, no . 62.


Scenarie - year 2052

The Future of War and the Rise of Robots
by Ugo Bardi 
We can expect ... drastic changes in the way wars will be managed and conducted. National armies may be replaced by private contractors deemed more suitable for managing high-tech robotic weapons ...

Heartland Theory  
"The Geographical Pivot of History" was an article submitted by Halford John Mackinder in 1904 to the Royal Geographical Society that advanced his Heartland Theory. In this article, Mackinder extended the scope of geopolitical analysis to encompass the entire globe.
The World-Island, comprising the interlinked continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa. ...

Drone Warfare

Full Spectrum Dominance 
Ian G. R. Shaw (2016) Predator Empire: Drone Warfare and Full Spectrum Dominance. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 327 pp.
University of Minosota Press
... Shaw argues that this will lead to the development of a world that is increasingly, digitally and physically, enclosed. A world of a “single immunity configuration”, one that is controlled by new technologies, enabling a pacification of societies, and to quell unrest, resistance, and objection before it becomes apparent (Shaw 256-257). ...

Grégoire Chamayou (2015) A Theory of the Drone. New York & London: The New Press, 292 pp. 
... The “necroethics”, embodied by military officers and propounded by the military’s own professional philosophers, extends the ‘right to kill well beyond the classic legal boundaries ...

The meteoric rise of US Special Operations 
Turse: Nick 2015: Last Year America Sent Special Ops Forces Into Almost 70% of the Countries in the World ...  

Joint Special Operations Command 
The Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) is a component command of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) ... 

Kritik af den kyniske fornuft
Peter Sloterdijk

The new enclosures 
Introduction to the new enclosures ... pdf



The Future of Global Conflict 
Christopher K. Chase-Dunn, Volker Bornschier, Christopher Chase-Dunn Editors 1999:  The Future of Global Conflict.
Sage Studies in International Sociology. 


Kreibich, Rolf (2008): Weltmacht China - Szenarien 2030, Eine Zukunftsstudie; Berlin
2008 (wird demnächst veröffentlicht). ... pdf

The Stack

Benjamin H. Bratton 2015: The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty  
... A comprehensive political and design theory of planetary-scale computation proposing that The Stack—an accidental megastructure—is both a technological apparatus and a model for a new geopolitical architecture.
...  Bratton explores six layers of The Stack: Earth, Cloud, City, Address, Interface, User. ... 
... The book challenges traditional ideas of sovereignty centered around the nation-state, and develops a theory of geopolitics that accounts for sovereignty in terms of planetary-scale computation at various scales

Warfare and Kondratieff Waves

Dator J. 2006. Alternative Futures for K-Waves. Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security / Ed. by T. C. Devezas,  pp. 311–317. Amsterdam: IOS Press 

Grinin L. E., and Korotayev A. V. 2010b. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions. Journal of Globaliza-tion Studies 1(2): 166–183. 

Kleinknecht A., and van der Panne G. 2006. Who Was Right? Kuznets in 1930 or Schumpeter in 1939? Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security / Ed. by T. C. Devezas, pp. 118–127. Amsterdam: IOS Press. 

Modelski G. 2006. Global Political Evolution, Long Cycles, and K-Waves. Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World  Security / Ed. by T. C. Devezas, pp. 293–302. Amster-dam: IOS Press. 

The sixth Kondratieff wave and the cybernetic revolution ... 


A publication of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), 2017. 
NIC serves as the US Intelligence Community's center for the long-term strategic analysis. 
Trends Transforming the Global Landscape - Key Global Trends. 
Major Trends: Four overall trends are likely to exemplify the changing character of conflict during the next two decades regarding how people will fight:
... In addition to countering foreign military intervention, long-range, standoff capabilities might enable some states to assert control over key maritime chokepoints and to establish local spheres of influence.

National Security Agency

Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center

China and Russia together, with aspiring powers, Brazil, India, and South Africa, have also built a nonbinding summit platform known as the BRICS, to give themselves a transnational platform from which to promote their views. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia have also created a similar platform, MIKTA, based on shared values and interests.

State hierarchy - World Bank and IMF  
Efforts to change the state hierarchy in existing institutions will continue, in an attempt to gain privileges. Structures that might seek to reorient the state hierarchy of power include the BRICS-led New Development Bank and the China-led AIIB (to complement the World Bank and IMF).