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Determination

Sociale determinationsfaktorer

Macromodels

Population macromodels  
Compact Macromodels of  the World System Growth  
www.academia.edu ... 

Boserup, E. 1965. The Conditions for Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure. Chicago, IL: Aldine.

Chesnais, J. C. 1992. The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Chu, C. Y. C., and R. D. Lee. 1994. Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population
Dynamics in Historic China. Journal of Population Economics 7: 351–78.

Cohen, J. E. 1995. Population Growth and Earth's Carrying Capacity. Science
269(5222): 341–6. 

Haub, C. 1995. How Many People have ever Lived on Earth? Population Today 23(2):
4–5.

Johansen, A., and D. Sornette. 2001. Finite-time Singularity in the Dynamics of the
World Population and Economic Indices. Physica A 294(3–4): 465–502.

Hollingsworth, W. G. 1996. Ending the Explosion: Population Policies and Ethics for a Humane Future. Santa Ana, CA: Seven Locks Press. 

Kremer, Michael (1993). “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (August, no. 3), 681-716.

Komlos, J., and S. Nefedov. 2002. A Compact Macromodel of Pre-Industrial Population Growth. Historical Methods 35: 92–4.
Korotayev, A. V., and N. L.

Komarova. 2004. A New Mathematical Model of PreIndustrial
Demographic Cycle. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 157–63. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004

Kremer, M. 1993. Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108: 681–716

Lee, R. D. 1986. Malthus and Boserup: A Dynamic Synthesis. The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus / Ed. by D. Coleman and R. Schofield, pp. 96–130. Oxford: Blackwell.

McEvedy, C., and R. Jones. 1978. Atlas of World Population History. New York: Facts on File.

Podlazov, A. V. 2004. Theory of the Global Demographic Process. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 269–72. Moscow: Russian State Social University.

Simon, J. 1977. The Economics of Population Growth. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Simon, J. 1981. The Ultimate Resource. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Simon, J. 2000. The Great Breakthrough and its Cause. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Er vi for få mennesker på vores planet? 
... Ifølge FNs fremskrivning vil befolkningstilvæksten være meget ulige fordelt. ...
www.waagstein.com ...

Statistik

Bacci, Massimo Livi (2006). “A Concise History of World Population”, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, UK –
Cambridge, Mass. - London.

Durand, John D. (1974). “Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation”, University of
Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, Philadelphia.
www.indianngos.com/issue/pop ...

UN (2004). “World Population to 2300”, United Nations, New York
www.un.org/esa/pop ... pdf 

UN (2010). “World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision”, United Nations, New York. 

UN (2011). “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2011”, United Nations, New York.

UN (2012a). “Ageing in the 21st Century: A Celebration and a Challenge”, United Nations Population Fund
and HelpAge International, New York.
www.unfpa.org/public ..

WHO (2007). “The world health report 2007. A safer future: global public health security in the 21st century”, World Health Organization, WHO Press, Geneva.
www.who.int/whr/2007 ... pdf 

 

Anthropocene

Anthropocene: Planet Earth has entered new epoch, experts say
'The phenomenon is of sufficient scale to be considered as part of the Geological Time Scale'. 
The idea that the world had entered an epoch defined by humans was first suggested in 2000 by scientists Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer. 
...  Dr Colin Waters, secretary of the Anthropocene Working Group, compared the changes made by humans on Earth to the end of the last ice age some 11,500 years ago, the start of the Holocene epoch.
www.independent.co.uk/environ ... 

Define the Anthropocene in terms of the whole Earth  
www.nature.com/news/define ... 

Demografi

Den demografiske faktor
Befolkningsudvikling og befolkningssammensætning.

Demografi er græsk og betyder "befolkningsbeskrivelse". Demografi eller befolkningslære er videnskaben om et givet områdes befolkningsforhold, dets størrelse, sammensætning og udvikling, samt de forhold og egenskaber, der har indflydelse på det.
www.da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demografi

Journal of Demographic Economics
Demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and family structures notably respond to economic incentives and in turn affect the economic development of societies. 
www.cambridge.org/core/journals ...
Cambridge Core blog  
www.blog.journals.cambridge.org ..

World Population Trends 

World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision 
www.un.org/development/desa/publications ... 

Demography and K-waves

There are also some demographic and economic reasons why the phase of self-regulating systems will start in medicine: – Increase in average life expectancy and population ageing will favor not only the growth of medical opportunities to maintain health, but also allow the extension of working age, as population ageing will be accompanied by the lack of working-age population. 
www.researchgate.net/publication/309 ... 

The sixth Kondratieff wave and the cybernetic revolution  
The sixth K-wave will probably begin approximately in the 2020s. Meanwhile the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution has to begin later, at least, in the 2030–2040s. Thus, we suppose, that a new technological mode will not develop in a necessary form even by the 2020s.
www.researchgate.net/publication/309 ... 

Reinforcement 
The final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution and the first phase of the medical revolution.

Another scenario. The final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution can begin later – not in the 2030s, but in the 2040s. In this case the A-phase of the sixth wave will terminate before the beginning of the regulating systems revolution; therefore, it will not be based on fundamentally new technologies and will not become so powerful as is supposed in the previous scenario. The final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution in this case will coincide with the B-phase of the sixth wave. 
www.researchgate.net/publication/309 ...  

Demografi historie

Milepæle i den demografiske historie

100.000 fvt. - Omkransningsteori 
Mennesket udvandrer fra Afrika.

10.000 fvt. istid slutter 
Det varmere klima muliggør befolkningsvækst.
Befolkningsvæksten medfører spisning af vildt korn og herefter dyrkning af korn, der indleder overgangen fra jæger-samlersamfund til nomade landbrugssamfund.

6000 fvt. - flodkulturer - bofaste landbrugssamfund
Naturlig gødning fra floder medfører bofaste landbrugssamfund i Mesopotamien, Ægypten og Kina og muligør befolkningsvækst. 
Udviklingen af kornlagre muligør yderligere befolkningsvækst. 

1000 evt.- Landbrugsteknologisk udvikling 
Bedre plov og seletøj effektiveserer landbrugsproduktionen og muliggør befolkningsvækst. 

1348, pest i Europa 
Befolkningstallet bliver næsten halveret.
Jordejerne mangler arbejdskraft og det får forskellig betydning i hhv. Øst- og Vesteuropa.
I Vesteuropa bliver folket lidt friere.
I Østeuropa skærpes undertrykkelsen.
Årsagen til de to forskellige udviklingslinjer er, at i Vesteuropa er handelskapitalismen vokset frem og tilbyder mere frihed en stavnsbånd.

1700-tallet 
Malthus: Landbrugsproduktionen kan ikke følge med befolkningsvæksten.
Industrialisering: Byerne kan bruge befolkningsoverskud fra landet.
www.da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Malthus

Referencer 

The Black Death and the Transformation of the West
David Herlihy 1997: Harvard University Press.
Amazon.co.uk. Google Books

Den sorte død 
Den sorte død begyndte i Messina i 1347.
www.da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Den_sorte_død

Mortality statistics 
In the field of statistics and applied probability, John Graunt published Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality also in 1662, initiating the discipline of demography.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ars_Conjectandi

Referencer

​Boserup, Ester 1965:The Conditions of Agricultural Growth.
www.biw.kuleuven.be/aee/clo/idessa_files/boserup1965.pdf
Boserup, Ester 1981: Population and Technological Change.
​Boserup, Ester biografi
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ester_Boserup

Menneskeproduktion

Hekse, befolkningsvækst og politik.
Hekse forfølges fordi deres praksis modarbejder statens krav om en hurtig befolkningsvækst efter pesten næsten halverede Europas befolkningstal fra 1348.
Hekse og kloge koner hjalp bl.a. kvinderne med prævention og abort.

Menneskeproduktion: befolkning, stat, familie  
Heinsohn, Gunnar 1981: Menneskeproduktion: befolkning, stat, familie. Kurasje. 
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 

Birth Control Political-Economy 
Heinsohn, Gunnar; Steiger, Otto (1999). "Birth Control: The Political-Economic Rationale behind Jean Bodin's Démonomanie". History of Political Economy. 31 (3): 423–448. 
... The rationale behind Bodin: ... Den lille istid, pesten og spansk sølv fra Potosi-minen ... merkantilisme. 
www.read.dukeupress.edu/hope ...  

Jean Bodin (1530–1596)
... Bodin's major work on sorcery and the witchcraft persecutions was first issued in 1580.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Bodin

The Black Death  
The epidemic in fact began with an attack that the Mongols launched on the Italian merchants’ last trading station in the region, Kaffa (today Feodosiya) in the Crimea. In the autumn of 1346. 
www.historytoday.com/ole-j-benedictow ...

Rome

Scheidel, Walter ed. 2001: Debating Roman demography. Brill. 

Scheidel, Walter 1966: Measuring sex, age and death in the Roman Empire: explorations in ancient demography. Journal of Roman Archaeology.
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 

USA

The Economic Impact of Population Change
Population growth impacts the size of society’s work force and
consumption. Society’s consumption in turn impacts the level of
production. Since consumer spending makes up approximately two
thirds of GDP, demographics has a very large impact on the economy.
Changes in our interest rates, wages, production, inflation, investments,
retirement and pensions are all directly affected by demographic
change. ... This data is a reflection of the Kondratieff long-waves. 
Cheung, Edward 2007: www.longwavepress.com ... pdf 

Cheung, Edward 2007: Baby Boomers, Generation X and Social Cycles
Volume 1: North American Long-waves. Longwave Press.
This is the first book to provide statistical evidence to link the long-waves of social change to demographics for the past 200 years in North America.
www.longwavepress.com ... pdf 

United-Nations, D. o. I. E. a. S. A., 1992. Long-range World Population Projections _Two Centuries of Population Growth: 1950-2150. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. United Nations, New York.

Explaining the Class Gap in Marriage 
... those with college degrees are more likely to postpone marriage and children until after they feel financially stable, ...
sociologists Sharon Sassler and Andrew Cherlin weigh in on this divergence in marriage rates.  
www.thesocietypages.org/clippings ...

Gridded Population of the World
www.sedac.ciesin.org/data ... 

Lang, R. E. and D. Dhavale., 2005. Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s New “Megapolitan” Geography. Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Census Report
05:01, July 2005. 

The Rise of the Mega-Region
Richard Florida, Tim Gulden, Charlotta Mellander. 2007.
www.creativeclass.com ...